The Security Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), a trade group that represents Wall Street securities firms, banks and asset management companies, indicated that its 2020 forecast of a possible recession is down 10 basis points to a 25% likelihood due to its GDP growth forecast of 1.8% in 2020. This forecast is down from the final GDP likely median in 2019 of 2.2%.
“Despite the markdown in overall GDP growth, the economy is still expected to expand at a moderate pace,” said Ellen Zentner, the managing director and chief US economist with Morgan Stanley and chair of SIFMA’s Economic Advisory Roundtable.
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Workers are expected to experience a +3.2% increase in average hourly earnings in 2020. This +3.2% increase comes on the heels of 2019’s earning increases of +3.1%.
Inflation is expected to remain quiet with a gain of +2.2% according to SIFMA.
The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) forecasts the likelihood of a 2020 recession at 29%. Included in NAR’s forecast for the 2020 economy at its December Economic Real Estate Summit are the following projections:
- GDP growth – +2.0% in 2020; +1.9% in 2021, according to the Bureau of Economic Advisors
- Unemployment rate – 3.7% in 2020; 3.9% in 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Home price change – +3.6% in 2020; +3.5% in 2021, according to Freddie Mac and the US Census Bureau
- Housing starts – 1.31M in 2020; 1.37M in 2021, according to the US Census Bureau
- Apartment rent change – +3.8% in 2020; +5.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Thanks to HousingWire’s Kathleen Howley, National Association of REALTORS®, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Advisors for source data
Also read: Multi-Family Originations to Hit All-Time High in 2020, Where Are Homeowners Refinancing the Most & Least?(, Prelude to 2020 – Home Prices Up As Well As New Home Sales in November
