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- Existing Home Sales Forecast
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) projects approximately 4.26 million existing-home sales in 2025, reflecting a 6% growth in sales. Price appreciation is expected to moderate to 3–4% annually.
Source: NAR
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2. MBS Highway’s Outlook
MBS Highway forecasts a 10% rise in existing home sales for 2025, with 30-year mortgage rates potentially dropping into the low 6% range.
Source: Highway.ai
3. Home Price Trends
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- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reported a 0.6% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year gain in January 2025.
- Highest performer: New York with +7.7% YoY growth
- Lowest performer: Tampa with a -1.5% decline
- The FHFA reported a 0.2% monthly and 4.8% annual increase, with:
- Strongest growth: Midwest and Northeast (~7% YoY)
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reported a 0.6% month-over-month and 4.1% year-over-year gain in January 2025.
Decline: Mountain and South Atlantic regions (~-1% YoY)
Sources: S&P Global, [FHFA.gov]
4. Rental Market Dynamics
According to Apartment List’s March 2025 report:
- Rents increased 0.6% month-over-month, following seasonal trends.
- Rents are still down 0.5% year-over-year, marking the 22nd straight month of annual declines.
- The national vacancy rate remains high at 6.9%.
- Average Monthly Rent for a 2-Bedroom Apartment:
- Most Expensive Markets:
- New York City, NY: Approximately $5,000 per month.
- San Francisco, CA: Approximately $4,084 per month.
- Most Affordable Markets:
- Wichita, KS: Approximately $763 per month.
- Most Expensive Markets:
- Toledo, OH: Approximately $850 per month.
Sources: U.S. News, HowMuch.net
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5. Pending Home Sales Index
The NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index rose 2% month-over-month to 72.0 in March, led by a 6.2% rebound in the South following a sharp drop in February. The other three regions posted monthly decreases.
Source: Highway.ai
6. Regional Home Price Insights
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- Midwest and Northeast: Supply-constrained, leading to higher prices.
- Western markets like Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Las Vegas are showing signs of recovery, with monthly gains between 0.6% and 0.7%.
Source: Highway.ai
7. New Residential Construction Trends
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- Housing Starts: As of February 2025, U.S. housing starts rose 11.2% month-over-month to 1.5 million units (seasonally adjusted). Single-family starts increased 11.4% to 1.108 million units.
- Regional Breakdown:
- Strongest growth: West (+20.2% YTD)
- Biggest drop: Midwest (-21.5% YTD)
- Average Sales Price:
- Median: $414,500
- Average: $487,100
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, NAHB
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8. The mix of rising home prices, fluctuating rates, strong new construction in select areas, and continued tight supply in others means agents must stay informed, strategic, and proactive when advising buyers and sellers.
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