Update on distressed property…
-22 million jobs lost
-Peak of Forbearance requests was March of 2020 when 8% of mortgages were in forbearance.
-Averaging more coming OUT of Forbearance than going IN.
-87% of Forbearances are successful
-400,000 new ones expected to default plus 250,000 already in system = 650,000 total. During housing crash there were 2 million total.
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Will there be an REO surge?
-Not likely anytime soon.
-The market will easily absorb inventory, Fed Intervention, -equity.
What about Short Sales?
-Some short sales or a short sale like solution will arise but no time soon.
-FHA borrowers are the most behind, most likely to go into default but also most likely to get government intervention.
Also: regarding investors.
In 2019 there were 250,000 fix and flips
10 to 12% of all transactions are investor purchases, 13 to 15 billion in volume yearly.
Unlike the last time, the big opportunity won’t be in buying distressed opportunities. The biggest opportunity will be helping people who have EQUITY but can’t pay their mortgage because they’ve yet to find replacement employment.
According to NAR, 35 to 45% of agents own at least 1 rental property.
90% of investors are ‘Mom and Pop’ investors who own 1 to 10 rentals.